tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 3h 52m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 10h 10m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 42m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 18m 96% 66%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 51m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 10h 09m 100% 66%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 09m 84% 65%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:23 → DFW 15:28AA 2114 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → LGA 23:37AA 1375 10h 14m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:37 → ORD 17:57AA 2285 2h 32m Chicago ORD 20:29 → LGA 23:56AA 1166 9h 19m 94% 60%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 08m Houston IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59UA 334 10h 14m 98% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON