Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	10h 03m	99%	85%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 39m Denver	DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501	7h 54m	96%	85%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 29m Houston	IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496	7h 29m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 22:47 → MCO 07:10 +1AS 1371	10h 38m	98%	81%
American Details →	SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 19:05 → MCO 21:00AA 1783	10h 44m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	8h 43m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:22 → MCO 17:42DL 1691	7h 27m	94%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	6h 58m	71%	60%
American Details →	SNA 11:37 → ORD 17:57AA 2285	48m Chicago	ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40AA 3176	8h 03m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON