Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	3h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 40m	94%	78%
American Details →	SNA 12:27 → PHX 13:56AA 2454	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 16:05 → MIA 23:27AA 1222	8h 00m	98%	76%
United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	2h 22m Denver	DEN 16:05 → MIA 22:08UA 445	8h 48m	100%	75%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	3h 57m Phoenix	PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:48AA 404	10h 02m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → MIA 19:01DL 719	9h 16m	98%	74%
American Details →	SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177	3h 22m Charlotte	CLT 18:37 → MIA 20:48AA 400	10h 32m	99%	71%
American Details →	SNA 09:02 → DFW 14:07AA 1686	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:02 → MIA 22:03AA 2050	10h 01m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 11:34 → JFK 20:04AA 2459	51m New York	JFK 20:55 → MIA 23:54AA 1922	9h 20m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON