tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2185 Delta Flight history → SNA 08:00 MSP 13:39 10% 4% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 41m Portland PDX 11:05 → MSP 16:20AS 714 7h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 8h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981 10h 30m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 07m Chicago ORD 16:16 → MSP 18:09UA 1935 9h 24m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 10h 24m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 6h 01m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 59m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 6h 26m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Las Vegas LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238 5h 57m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 59m Newark EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331 9h 30m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON