Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 628 SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2454 SNA 12:27 → PHX 13:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 2912 Southwest	SNA 08:27	PHX 09:46	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 565 Southwest	SNA 18:34	PHX 19:53	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	SNA 17:19	PHX 18:39	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3774 Southwest	SNA 13:00	PHX 14:19	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1194 Southwest	SNA 11:04	PHX 12:23	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2360 American	SNA 10:03	PHX 11:31	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:15	PHX 14:43	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:28	PHX 18:06	15%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:27	PHX 13:56	18%	7%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON