Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1325 SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3687 SNA 07:05 → SEA 10:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	10%	3%	0.8%	94%
AS 1310 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 19:13	SEA 22:02	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
AS 1378 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:34	SEA 13:26	14%	3%	0.8%	93%
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	14%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 774 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 17:32	SEA 20:20	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
OO 3697 SkyWest	SNA 17:58	SEA 20:56	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	16%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 14:09	SEA 17:07	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 12:32	SEA 15:30	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 07:05	SEA 10:06	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON