Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 3251 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 3251 SNA 06:45 → SFO 08:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3054 SNA 09:22 → SFO 11:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SFO 08:30	12%	4%	1.3%	93%
OO 3313 SkyWest	SNA 16:53	SFO 18:31	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	17%	7%	1.0%	67%
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	17%	6%	1.2%	65%
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:12	SFO 19:42	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 653 United	SNA 07:28	SFO 09:08	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3499 SkyWest	SNA 19:53	SFO 21:30	21%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	21%	8%	1.3%	50%
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 12:15	SFO 13:53	22%	7%	0.9%	76%
UA 1320 United	SNA 14:53	SFO 16:23	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 3333 SkyWest	SNA 14:07	SFO 15:45	24%	9%	1.0%	no record
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 10:02	SFO 11:39	26%	10%	1.1%	no record
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:22	SFO 11:00	26%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON