Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1198 SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3730 SNA 19:00 → SLC 22:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SNA 09:50	SLC 12:46	7%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 1185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 07:15	SLC 10:13	7%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 1671 Delta	SNA 13:45	SLC 16:43	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SNA 17:03	SLC 19:58	10%	5%	0.7%	86%
OO 3730 SkyWest	SNA 19:00	SLC 22:03	11%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON