Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3056 SkyWest	SNA 16:23	STS 18:10	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 3467 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:48	STS 13:37	18%	5%	1.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 21m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	99%	91%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → STS 12:42AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → STS 21:51AS 1330	7h 06m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON