Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 1339 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day


WN 1339 Southwest	SRQ 08:48	BNA 09:53	5%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 3661 Southwest	SRQ 12:27	BNA 13:32	16%	5%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	4h 05m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 38m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:26 → BNA 14:38DL 790	4h 37m	97%	88%
American Details →	SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 11:59 → BNA 12:28AA 2409	5h 50m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:51 → BNA 19:03DL 1490	6h 42m	99%	87%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 57m Newark	EWR 10:50 → BNA 12:22UA 2776	7h 22m	97%	86%
American Details →	SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 17:03 → BNA 17:38AA 519	5h 40m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON