Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2584 at 12:07, 26%.

Nonstops that day


AA 2584 American Flight history →	SRQ 12:07	DCA 14:42	26%	7%	2.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 27m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 43m	98%	87%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 47m Newark	EWR 10:40 → DCA 12:17UA 4172 · flown by GoJet	6h 17m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	7h 36m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:20DL 3115	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 15m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	6h 58m	99%	77%
United Details →	SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612	3h 08m Newark	EWR 18:16 → DCA 19:56UA 4432 · flown by GoJet	7h 41m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	1h 45m New York	LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	93%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON