Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 17:09, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4072 Envoy	SRQ 17:09	DFW 19:01	18%	7%	4.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	6h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 36m	99%	88%
American Details →	SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → DFW 12:47AA 2747	6h 09m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:43 → DFW 19:02DL 1827	6h 41m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → DFW 15:16DL 921	5h 15m	95%	84%
American Details →	SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → DFW 19:51AA 2815	7h 53m	100%	83%
American Details →	SRQ 12:07 → DCA 14:43AA 2584	2h 28m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	8h 34m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON