Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1343 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


UA 1343 United Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	EWR 08:53	5%	2%	2.7%	94%
UA 2612 United Flight history →	SRQ 12:15	EWR 15:08	20%	6%	2.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 12m	99%	85%
American Details →	SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:28AA 2264	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → EWR 12:49AA 1697	5h 11m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:20DL 3115	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527	6h 17m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	6h 52m	98%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:57AA 1452	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 18:37 → EWR 20:29AA 997	7h 31m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON