tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 29m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 20m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 14m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 00m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:38DL 2327 7h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:50DL 1223 5h 49m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:03AA 398 7h 25m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 17:51 → IAH 19:35AA 2935 7h 37m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON