Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2412 at 14:30, 20%.

Nonstops that day


DL 2412 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 14:30	LGA 17:30	20%	10%	2.1%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → LGA 11:43DL 557	5h 43m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 38m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	5h 49m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → LGA 23:46DL 520	6h 09m	98%	81%
American Details →	SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → LGA 13:48AA 2268	6h 10m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997	5h 59m	97%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 07:51 → MIA 09:01AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Miami	MIA 12:25 → LGA 15:23AA 2484	7h 32m	97%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 18:10 → LGA 20:05AA 1060	7h 07m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON