tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 4% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3797 at 07:11, 6%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3797 Southwest SRQ 07:11 MCO 08:06 6% 2% 2.3% no record
WN 3521 Southwest SRQ 16:58 MCO 17:54 35% 13% 5.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 4h 56m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → MCO 12:47AA 1576 5h 09m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → MCO 00:25 +1DL 1162 6h 48m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 08m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 54m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 27m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → MCO 15:26DL 1372 4h 25m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:51 → MIA 09:01AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Miami MIA 10:02 → MCO 11:13AA 2587 3h 22m 90% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON