Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 360 at 17:49, 24%.

Nonstops that day


WN 360 Southwest	SRQ 17:49	MDW 19:51	24%	6%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → MDW 22:50DL 1076	6h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 14m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON