Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 07:55, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SRQ 07:55	MIA 09:05	10%	4%	2.1%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 58m	98%	88%
American Details →	SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 33m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:20DL 3115	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 18m	99%	81%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	2h 38m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 38m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	52m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	4h 32m	88%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	2h 25m New York	LGA 19:55 → MIA 23:22DL 2382	8h 52m	95%	70%
American Details →	SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 18:37 → MIA 20:48AA 400	7h 50m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON