tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3698 Republic SRQ 12:08 ORD 14:26 15% 8% 1.9% no record
UA 1744 United SRQ 20:32 ORD 22:42 16% 6% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:28AA 2264 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 41m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 7h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:20DL 3115 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 7h 16m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 31m Newark EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 7h 06m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 7h 11m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:57AA 1452 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 7h 53m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → ORD 18:45DL 2879 6h 55m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412 3h 15m New York LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806 9h 06m 97% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON