tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:39 → PHL 14:47DL 2131 7h 43m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 24m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 18:24 → PHL 20:32DL 2065 7h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:19DL 3115 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 7h 22m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 03m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:29AA 2264 1h 31m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 5h 05m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:58AA 1452 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 18:07 → PHL 20:06AA 423 7h 08m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:51 → MIA 09:01AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Miami MIA 11:40 → PHL 14:36AA 1918 6h 45m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON