tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:37 → ATL 19:20DL 3115 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 7h 16m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:38 → CLT 09:28AA 2264 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:58 → STL 12:53AA 3096 6h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 6h 06m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 03m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 01m Newark EWR 09:54 → STL 11:30UA 2311 6h 30m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:58 → CLT 14:57AA 1452 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 16:23 → STL 17:24AA 2686 5h 26m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON