Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1524 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 1524 STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4474 STL 14:20 → ATL 17:16 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1524 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:00	ATL 08:38	3%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 1536 Delta Flight history →	STL 07:08	ATL 09:45	3%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	STL 09:24	ATL 12:02	3%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 3798 Southwest	STL 10:11	ATL 12:59	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:51	ATL 13:25	4%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:22	ATL 16:07	6%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 3800 Southwest	STL 18:36	ATL 21:22	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:58	ATL 21:44	7%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	STL 16:55	ATL 19:46	7%	4%	0.5%	81%
WN 1370 Southwest	STL 15:09	ATL 17:56	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 4474 Frontier Flight history →	STL 14:20	ATL 17:16	18%	9%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON