tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2158 Southwest STL 08:24 AUS 10:26 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3803 Southwest STL 20:52 AUS 22:56 8% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 6h 29m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 46m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 26m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 21m 97% 90%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:28AA 1926 1h 53m Chicago ORD 08:21 → AUS 11:02AA 1121 6h 03m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → AUS 17:15DL 2687 8h 26m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371 3h 54m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 12m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON