Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3546 at 09:01 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3546 STL 09:01 → BOS 12:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 982 STL 19:06 → BOS 22:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3546 Envoy	STL 09:01	BOS 12:57	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1538 Southwest	STL 10:29	BOS 14:20	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 18:04	BOS 22:07	30%	15%	1.4%	81%worse than usual
WN 2144 Southwest	STL 13:24	BOS 17:15	33%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 982 Southwest	STL 19:06	BOS 22:42	33%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON