tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2926 Southwest STL 10:30 CLE 13:15 4% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1589 Southwest STL 19:21 CLE 22:06 8% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 37m Detroit DTW 12:41 → CLE 13:44DL 5359 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → CLE 12:24DL 2978 5h 24m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:57 → CLE 14:49DL 775 6h 41m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:08 → ORD 07:37UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 18m Chicago ORD 10:55 → CLE 13:20UA 2389 6h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:03 → ATL 12:54DL 1571 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:13 → CLE 16:05DL 2545 5h 02m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371 3h 32m Detroit DTW 20:02 → CLE 21:05DL 4646 · flown by Endeavor 6h 11m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:31 → ORD 11:58UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 2h 47m Chicago ORD 14:45 → CLE 17:09UA 1502 5h 38m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 14:25 → ATL 17:15DL 566 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:34DL 1339 7h 09m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON