Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 8029 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 8029 STL 05:37 → DCA 08:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2286 STL 17:07 → DCA 20:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 8029 Southwest	STL 05:37	DCA 08:46	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1930 Southwest	STL 08:21	DCA 11:32	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4634 Republic	STL 06:04	DCA 09:34	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	STL 10:49	DCA 14:16	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 2999 Southwest	STL 13:06	DCA 16:16	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1965 Southwest	STL 15:26	DCA 18:36	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1493 Southwest	STL 19:09	DCA 22:19	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2286 American Flight history →	STL 17:07	DCA 20:26	16%	8%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON