Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3827 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3827 STL 08:31 → DEN 09:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 STL 16:34 → DEN 18:16 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3827 Southwest	STL 08:31	DEN 09:51	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3826 Southwest	STL 06:56	DEN 08:14	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5548 SkyWest	STL 05:07	DEN 06:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 125 Southwest	STL 12:23	DEN 13:41	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3832 Southwest	STL 21:00	DEN 22:16	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2459 United Flight history →	STL 09:06	DEN 10:30	12%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 985 Southwest	STL 16:09	DEN 17:28	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1380 United Flight history →	STL 13:38	DEN 15:00	15%	4%	0.5%	86%
F9 4567 Frontier Flight history →	STL 20:08	DEN 21:44	16%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 3831 Southwest	STL 18:28	DEN 19:48	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2323 United	STL 16:34	DEN 18:16	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON