Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2261 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1363 STL 15:20 → DFW 17:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:32	DFW 07:30	5%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:07	DFW 09:06	9%	5%	0.8%	83%
MQ 4074 Envoy	STL 12:53	DFW 14:53	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3333 American	STL 10:08	DFW 12:01	11%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3739 Envoy	STL 17:07	DFW 19:10	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1959 American Flight history →	STL 08:19	DFW 10:13	13%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	STL 15:20	DFW 17:14	19%	7%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON