Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1626 STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1145 STL 19:27 → DTW 21:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1626 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:30	DTW 09:04	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:19	DTW 12:53	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 3833 Southwest	STL 11:14	DTW 13:48	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:54	DTW 16:30	7%	3%	0.5%	77%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:09	DTW 20:44	8%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 1145 Southwest	STL 19:27	DTW 21:56	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON