Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3837 at 13:59, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3837 Southwest	STL 13:59	ECP 15:54	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	5h 58m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 42m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	4h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 21m	99%	89%
American Details →	STL 15:20 → DFW 17:13AA 1363	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	97%	87%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 20m	99%	86%
American Details →	STL 10:21 → CLT 13:18AA 2497	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → ECP 17:31AA 5297 · flown by PSA	7h 10m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON