Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 577 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 577 STL 07:28 → EWR 11:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3710 STL 16:54 → EWR 20:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 577 United	STL 07:28	EWR 11:07	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3715 Republic	STL 09:35	EWR 13:28	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 560 United	STL 12:06	EWR 15:34	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 3710 Republic	STL 16:54	EWR 20:48	15%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON