Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4981 at 10:19, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4981 Southwest	STL 10:19	FLL 14:01	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 23m	99%	89%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371	3h 53m Houston	IAH 12:04 → FLL 15:47UA 1982	8h 47m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	54m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	6h 04m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	6h 19m	98%	85%
United Details →	STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa	1h 35m Houston	IAH 10:06 → FLL 13:37UA 2670	6h 23m	97%	84%
American Details →	STL 06:53 → CLT 09:53AA 1515	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 10:55 → FLL 13:09AA 2585	5h 16m	94%	83%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:30 → FLL 14:39AA 1390	8h 07m	99%	83%
United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	3h 22m Houston	IAH 16:47 → FLL 20:34UA 277	8h 24m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	46m Chicago	ORD 17:46 → FLL 21:43UA 463	5h 21m	39%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON