tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4506 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 08:43 IAD 11:55 18% 8% 0.3% 82%
UA 4454 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 12:55 IAD 16:07 28% 16% 1.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 01m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 22m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:19 → IAD 14:31AA 524 7h 59m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:21 → CLT 13:19AA 2497 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 16:16 → IAD 17:53AA 5447 · flown by PSA 6h 32m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 15m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 5h 32m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 2h 32m Chicago ORD 14:24 → IAD 17:15UA 587 5h 55m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 00m 72% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON