Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3071 at 10:16, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3071 Southwest	STL 10:16	JAX 13:18	7%	2%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 08:51 → MSP 10:33DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 03m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	2h 09m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	6h 08m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720	6h 11m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	6h 14m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	3h 52m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:13 → JAX 19:30DL 2315	5h 08m	99%	85%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:39 → JAX 14:10UA 1113	7h 10m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON