Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3845 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3845 STL 05:41 → LAS 07:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3107 STL 12:07 → LAS 13:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3845 Southwest	STL 05:41	LAS 07:08	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3846 Southwest	STL 11:32	LAS 13:14	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 132 Southwest	STL 17:32	LAS 19:11	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3107 Frontier Flight history →	STL 12:07	LAS 13:58	13%	5%	1.2%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON