Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 187 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 187 STL 05:40 → LGA 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4449 STL 16:41 → LGA 20:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 187 Southwest	STL 05:40	LGA 09:04	5%	1%	1.8%	no record
YX 4450 Republic	STL 06:04	LGA 09:50	8%	3%	2.1%	no record
YX 4443 Republic	STL 10:02	LGA 13:46	21%	10%	3.5%	no record
WN 2151 Southwest	STL 20:32	LGA 00:15	24%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 4334 Southwest	STL 10:58	LGA 14:28	25%	7%	3.6%	no record
WN 579 Southwest	STL 15:34	LGA 19:04	35%	14%	1.5%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:41	LGA 20:26	35%	22%	2.5%	no record
DL 4981 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 06:05	LGA 09:38	10%	6%	2.1%	90%
DL 4935 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 17:22	LGA 21:00	21%	13%	18.8%	79%
DL 4839 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 09:22	LGA 12:56	23%	5%	10.4%	77%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 12:35	LGA 16:09	26%	14%	5.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON