Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3861 STL 06:26 → MDW 07:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 8631 STL 21:07 → MDW 22:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3861 Southwest	STL 06:26	MDW 07:37	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 3862 Southwest	STL 10:41	MDW 11:52	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3865 Southwest	STL 20:55	MDW 22:10	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2052 Southwest	STL 12:48	MDW 13:53	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3864 Southwest	STL 15:49	MDW 16:59	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 8631 Southwest	STL 21:07	MDW 22:18	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON