Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3870 at 08:26, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3870 Southwest	STL 08:26	MSY 10:16	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	5h 37m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 09m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 33m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 08:51 → MSP 10:33DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	6h 34m	99%	90%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371	3h 44m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 14m	100%	90%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	2h 57m Denver	DEN 13:27 → MSY 17:15UA 250	8h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678	5h 12m	99%	89%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:58 → MSY 13:26UA 1532	7h 26m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON