Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 00m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	4h 45m	99%	86%
American Details →	STL 13:54 → CLT 16:50AA 3096	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 19:56 → MYR 21:04AA 1085	6h 10m	100%	84%
American Details →	STL 10:21 → CLT 13:19AA 2497	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 16:00 → MYR 17:11AA 2943	5h 50m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON