tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 1318 at 18:19, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1318 Alaska STL 18:19 PDX 20:08 13% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 02m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661 8h 18m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 58m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 07m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:58DL 691 10h 36m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 7h 56m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 3h 22m Houston IAH 16:47 → PDX 19:18UA 1964 10h 08m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON