Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1308 STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1739 STL 13:25 → PHL 16:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1308 American Flight history →	STL 06:14	PHL 09:34	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 4508 Southwest	STL 10:59	PHL 14:24	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1160 Southwest	STL 18:38	PHL 22:07	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1739 American Flight history →	STL 13:25	PHL 16:56	15%	6%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON