Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 830 STL 07:39 → PHX 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1587 STL 17:13 → PHX 18:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 830 Southwest	STL 07:39	PHX 09:01	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3877 Southwest	STL 11:51	PHX 13:16	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2660 American	STL 14:30	PHX 15:59	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2574 American Flight history →	STL 08:01	PHX 09:17	12%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 3878 Southwest	STL 20:42	PHX 22:06	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1587 Southwest	STL 17:13	PHX 18:27	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON