tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3879 Southwest STL 10:21 PIT 13:06 4% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 4165 Southwest STL 18:46 PIT 21:31 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:28AA 1926 1h 52m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 5h 08m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 5h 52m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 5h 26m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 6h 55m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 40m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:05 → LGA 09:38DL 4981 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m New York LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic 7h 42m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49DL 3122 6h 58m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → PIT 21:51DL 2583 7h 29m 100% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946 4h 29m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON