Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 591 at 15:54, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 591 Southwest	STL 15:54	PNS 17:43	10%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	5h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 49m	99%	89%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → PNS 11:19AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 47m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	6h 35m	100%	87%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → PNS 13:22UA 2492	7h 22m	99%	86%
American Details →	STL 06:53 → CLT 09:52AA 1515	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 10:54 → PNS 11:43AA 2476	4h 50m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON