Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:55, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 3886 Southwest	STL 08:27	SAN 10:29	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	9h 03m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26DL 761	9h 56m	99%	87%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	7h 21m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 08m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712	8h 19m	99%	86%
United Details →	STL 10:31 → ORD 11:58UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 13:42 → SAN 16:00UA 559	7h 29m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924	9h 56m	100%	85%
United Details →	STL 11:38 → ORD 13:09UA 4395 · flown by GoJet	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → SAN 18:51UA 2138	9h 13m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON