tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 09:06, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 473 Alaska Flight history → STL 06:02 SEA 08:30 9% 2% 0.6% 91%
AS 388 Alaska Flight history → STL 15:20 SEA 17:36 15% 4% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 8h 39m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 9h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 25m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 9h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371 3h 58m Houston IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00UA 2228 11h 00m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 53m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 10h 23m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:53 → CLT 09:53AA 1515 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 12:34 → SEA 15:24AA 506 10h 31m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON