Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:55, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3892 Southwest	STL 08:33	SMF 10:29	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 48m	99%	89%
American Details →	STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078	8h 39m	98%	87%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 05m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662	8h 05m	98%	86%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → IAH 08:11UA 1371	1h 49m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:14UA 1155	8h 14m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	7h 58m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 19:55 → SLC 22:05DL 1492	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	5h 49m	89%	83%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:17 → SMF 10:26AA 2081	6h 54m	91%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON