Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:08, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:24DL 3115	7h 16m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109	5h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	99%	86%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 48m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	8h 12m	99%	83%
American Details →	STL 13:54 → CLT 16:49AA 3096	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:06AA 2604	6h 12m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON