Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:43 → VPS 11:01DL 2048	5h 01m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 34m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	STL 11:54 → ATL 14:40DL 1400	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 48m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 10:03 → ATL 12:54DL 1571	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	5h 57m	99%	90%
American Details →	STL 10:21 → CLT 13:19AA 2497	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 17:14 → VPS 17:55AA 2197	7h 34m	99%	83%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	5h 56m	99%	82%
American Details →	STL 08:19 → DFW 10:13AA 1959	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:13 → VPS 15:20AA 2501	7h 01m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON