tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3221 at 14:47, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3221 SkyWest STS 14:47 PDX 16:37 7% 4% 0.8% no record
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record STS 19:03 PDX 20:36 49% 21% 2.1% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon 3h 43m Las Vegas LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779 7h 40m 100% 89%
AlaskaDetails → STS 09:53 → BUR 11:28AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Burbank BUR 14:16 → PDX 16:41AS 1550 6h 48m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → STS 13:10 → PHX 15:27AA 3757 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 17:33 → PDX 20:26AA 1625 7h 16m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → STS 17:32 → SEA 19:29AS 1322 3h 57m Seattle SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon 6h 50m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 17m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m San Diego SAN 16:17 → PDX 18:37AS 486 7h 33m 99% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON